BRATTLEBORO — There are two fairly obvious conclusions one can draw from Gov. Peter Shumlin's recent statements:
Statement: A plan for funding Shumlincare will not be made public until 2017.
Conclusion: Shumlin is hoping Sen. Patrick Leahy won't run for reelection in 2016. Shumlin will run against U.S. Representative Peter Welch and thinks he can win, or he and Welch have a deal that they won't compete and Welch will support Shumlin for the seat Welch will vacate.
Either way, Shumlin will be out of office when the populace realizes Shumlincare cannot be funded by the small number of citizens not exempt from the tax for one reason or another (Medicare, Federal and VA coverage), self-insured companies (IBM, General Electric, Green Mountain Power, Bombardier, Middlebury College, state employees, etc.).
Sen. Peter Galbraith's work has shown that Shumlincare isn't fundable even without the exemptions, or it would drive anyone with money out of the state, e.g., a 25-percent sales tax, a 30- to 40-percent income-tax rate, or an 18-percent payroll tax. (Previous estimates were based on a cost of Shumlincare of $1.6 billion; present estimates are $2.2 billion.)
The proposed 2015 general fund budget is somewhat more than $1.4 billion. So funding for Shumlincare will cost more than the proposed 2015 general fund budget. Whoever said Shumlin wasn't smart and conniving?
Statement: Shumlin is “open to discussing the legalization of marijuana in Vermont.”
Conclusion: Kind of speaks for itself.