With the election now in the books, change is in the air. But how this change might manifest itself is still unknown.
Many people in Vermont are voicing concerns about the national election, which puts former President Donald Trump back in the White House.
"The results of the national election are devastating," said Rep. Mollie Burke, D-Brattleboro, who was re-elected to the House.
"I worry about how the policies of the new Trump administration will impact Vermont," she said. "Will ICE [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] agents be entering dairy farms in Addison and Franklin counties to drag Mexican workers out for deportation, leaving our farms without workers and devastating our dairy economy? Will there be cuts to Medicaid, food stamps, and other programs that help people get the assistance they need? Will federal highway funding for our roads and bridges be cut to punish Vermont for its blue-state status?"
Burke said she is is hoping that Vermont Gov. Phil Scott "will refuse to cooperate with any policies that affect the civil liberties of our citizens."
"It is going to be a difficult time ahead," she said.
The economy was a major focus of the national election, with competing narratives on who would benefit from which party's policies, said Sen. Wendy Harrison, D-Windham, who won her second term in office.
"I am extremely concerned that the results of the election will accelerate the trajectory toward consolidation of wealth at the top tiers," she said. "What we can do in Vermont is continue to support local businesses, especially employee-owned and cooperatives, and our local farmers and energy producers."
Sen. Nader Hashim, D-Windham, who also won his second term, said he worries about the effects of a Trump administration on the country's most vulnerable.
"Specifically, I have concerns in the areas of reproductive rights, migrant communities, LGBTQ+ rights, and public education," Hashim said.
"Thankfully, our Legislature over the last few bienniums has taken significant steps to codify and enshrine protections in these areas," he said. "However, the work is far from finished, and I intend to keep these priorities in mind when the session starts."
Republicans also made gains in Vermont.
Scott, who easily won his fifth term in office, campaigned against a Democratic majority in the Legislature that was elected overwhelmingly by Vermonters in 2022 to solve some serious problems, among them climate change, education, housing, homelessness, child care, and taxation.
The governor's actions managed successfully to reduce the majority of Democrats and independents in the Legislature.
Unofficially, Republicans have picked up 18 seats in the 150-member House. Democrats and Progressives will hold 91 seats together, and Republicans will hold 56. In the Senate, the Republicans flipped six seats.
Without holding at least 100 seats, Democrats can no longer come together as a party to easily override Scott's vetoes of their work; they managed to do so for six of his seven vetoes in the last session.
Scott's critics weigh in
While the only House candidate representing Windham County residents lost a seat for re-election - Republican Thomas F. Charlton, who narrowly defeated first-term Democrat Heather Chase of Chester, 1,345–1,302 in the Windsor-Windham district, which includes Athens, Grafton, and Windham - Scott's attack on the Legislature frustrated many incumbent Democrats.
"I wish that the governor would propose a plan for any of the crises that we are facing," Rep. Emilie Kornheiser, D-Brattleboro, told The Commons on Election Day while campaigning outside the polls.
"It's really frustrating to me to hear him going all around the state essentially complaining," Kornheiser said. "He could look to his cabinet, he could look to the people who have been working hard on these issues, and he could put something forward that would maybe make a difference for Vermonters.
"And yet he has not," she continued. "He's just complaining. And that is politically frustrating and personally frustrating. It's like people are suffering because he's not showing up at the table."
Kornheiser cited Scott's approach to solving the housing crisis, charging that the governor thinks only about reducing regulations but that Brattleboro has already tried that measure - and it hasn't been enough.
"Brattleboro has been a shining example of planning for five years now," Kornheiser said. "All of the changes that the governor's talked about doing statewide, Brattleboro has already done." Yet the housing shortage remains.
That's because "we actually need to build more buildings and the market is not going to do it," she said. "We really need to put money into building. We need plans."
The Legislature works hard, Kornheiser said, and does good work.
"But we are not set up with the capacity to plan or implement," Kornheiser said. "That is not our role in our branch of government. Without that collaboration from the governor, we're doing the very best we can, but it's a lot harder than it needs to be."
Also on Election Day, Harrison, campaigning outside the Putney Fire Station, agreed with Kornheiser's characterization of the governor's role.
"Last session, we took a lot of pains to try to coordinate with the governor and get the governor and the administration's input early in the process so that we could talk about details," Harrison said. "And in my experience, they showed up very late and maybe the last couple of days of the session with ideas. We can't work that way."
An affordable Vermont?
Scott campaigned on the issue of "affordability," and frequently blamed the Legislature for the rising cost of living in Vermont.
"I think Vermont has challenges with affordability," Harrison said at the polls. "And the Legislature made huge strides in affordability that people don't always think about, especially with child care."
She said that the Child Care Bill (Act 76), enacted into law over Scott's veto in 2023, "is making a difference."
"A woman I just was speaking to told me her family is benefiting tremendously," Harrison said. "And I think the way that we financed it, with a very small payroll tax, was much more fair than doing an income tax or property tax. Because the folks who benefit from it, which include the families and the businesses, they are the ones who are paying for it."
Harrison said that program "took 10 years to get through the process, but it was worthwhile, and it should bring younger people to Vermont. It will help the current young families in Vermont, and it will help the workforce. So that's just one example of what we did in the past Legislature."
Harrison said there is much more work to be done.
"I care deeply about addressing Vermont's challenges and helping the Vermont economy to grow for everyone's benefit, while also protecting our historic town centers, incredible open areas, and collaborative culture," she said.
Harrison's priorities for Vermont, in the context of the recent election, are in line with those of her constituents, she said.
"My priorities are: modifying how we fund schools so we can maintain top-quality public education without taxing Vermonters out of their homes," she said.
She also wants to see a top income tax bracket and a second-home surcharge "to make Vermont's tax system fairer and to pay for increased essential services without having to increase taxes paid by lower- and middle-income Vermonters."
"And implementing, monitoring, and modifying, if necessary, Act 250 reforms to promote more housing," Harrison continued. "And we need to implement affordable initiatives to address climate change."
Vermont's current way of financing schools is not sustainable, Harrison said. Taxpayers across the state were hit with double-digit property tax increases because of school budgets.
"At the same time, we need resources and a strategy to support our public schools," she said, calling public schools "fundamental to our democratic system."
"They are also a consideration when families look to move to Vermont," Harrison continued.
She hopes that the Commission on the Future of Public Education in Vermont, created as part of the property tax bill passed this year, "will be unvarnished, creative, and thorough in its recommendations."
Climate change controversies
The Clean Heat Standard - designed "to create a market-based incentive to reduce the expense to Vermonters of heating their homes by gradually reducing the amount of fossil fuels used for heat through weatherization and alternative heat sources" - has become highly controversial, Harrison said.
"The Legislature will consider multiple studies next year," she said. "And I will only support legislation that would reduce costs to middle- and lower-income Vermonters."
Unlike electricity rates, oil and gas prices are not regulated, Harrison explained.
"We experienced price increases to more than $5 a gallon in the past few years, and too many Vermonters are dependent on oil as their only source of heat," she said.
The controversial Affordable Heat Act is still in play, Burke said.
"We will receive information soon on the impact of a potential Affordable Heat Act, something that has received a lot of press and misinformation," Burke said.
"The goal is to help low- and moderate-income families with heating cost while also cutting carbon emissions," she said. "If it turns out that this will negatively impact heating oil prices, we will have to look for other ways to achieve the same result."
Vermont also needs to reduce the frequency and severity of flooding, Harrison said.
"We passed a bill last year requiring the state to manage river corridors, and the implementation needs to be expedited," she said.
The bill has a number of components.
"We need to build more restored floodplains like the two in Brattleboro that have reduced storm impacts in and around downtown," Harrison said. "Our communication systems need to be better prepared to coordinate between towns and the state when disasters hit."
She said the the state and towns also must be "financially sustainable to handle these events."
"We can't rely only on FEMA, and we don't know where the private insurance industry will end up after it adjusts to the increasing natural disaster pattern nationwide," Harrison said.
She said that her priorities are based not only on her own judgment but also on what she has heard from her constituents in meetings, in email exchanges, and during on-the-street campaigning.
"I believe my constituents knew what they were voting for when they re-elected me," Harrison said. "I am grateful for their trust and eager to turn our priorities into action."
The brain drain
Burke said that after the election she became concerned about the changes in the Legislature.
"We lost a number of excellent legislators with years of institutional knowledge," Burke said.
House members in leadership roles losing their seats include Rep. Diane Lanpher, D-Vergennes, chair of the House Appropriations Committee; Rep. Mike McCarthy, D-St. Albans City, chair of the House Government and Military Affairs Committee; Rep. Stephanie Zak Jerome of Brandon, vice chair of the House commerce committee; Robin Chesnut-Tangerman of Middletown Springs, vice-chair of the House Committee on General and Housing; Rep. Carl Demrow, D-Corinth, ranking member on the House Ways and Means Committee; Rep. William Notte, D-Rutland City, an assistant majority leader.
"In addition to the loss of expertise, several of those are close friends - people I relied on for advice and information," Burke said.
For Democrats, the top policy priority in the Legislature in the next session will be to address educational property taxes in the wake of last year's spike.
"I believe that will be a priority for the Republicans as well," Burke said.
For Vermont to provide an "excellent and equitable education to all Vermont students in an affordable manner" is no small task "because of our system of local control over school budgets," she said. "The governor blamed the Legislature, but school budgets are decided upon at the local level."
Last year, Scott's solution to ballooning property taxes was to borrow money to pay the tax rate down, Burke said.
"That is akin to using a credit card to pay for ongoing expenses, something our state treasurer deemed fiscally irresponsible," Burke said. "So the governor is going to have to come to the table with workable ideas instead of just a veto pen, and we will see if we can find a solution."
She said that in many other areas, including housing, homelessness, mental health, health care costs, carbon emission reduction, and climate resilience, "our priorities will stay the same, but solutions will have to be worked out in compromise with the Republicans."
Transportation has always been Burke's main focus in the Legislature.
"Over my 16 years in the House, I have worked to make our transportation system safer, accessible to all users, less expensive, and less polluting," she said. "We made public transportation fare-free. We have put policies in place to help Vermonters purchase new and used electric and fuel-efficient vehicles."
But Burke said that the federal funding for these programs has "run out ahead of predictions, and the state did not receive a grant that would have continued these programs." She is looking for other funding.
"Low-income Vermonters pay a large percentage of household income in transportation costs," she said. "Our MileageSmart program particularly helped lower those costs for this group by subsidizing the purchase of used [or] fuel-efficient vehicles.
"This is one way we have already been addressing the affordability issue that Democrats have been criticized for," Burke said.
Listening to the voters
After the election, Hashim said, he recognizes that things have changed.
"The voters spoke quite loudly and the landscape of the state Legislature has changed substantially," he said.
"I am not surprised by the election results on either the state or federal level," Hashim said. "People have understandably grown frustrated with hearing how powerful the economy is when the average person is having difficulty affording basic goods and when the prospect of buying a house is almost non-existent for most middle-class earners."
Nationally, the Democratic Party "has prioritized war and an economic status quo over the well-being and economic prosperity of individual Americans," he continued. "That frustration manifested itself in the election results."
However, Hashim believes the hard work that the Legislature put in during the last session will have lasting and positive effects.
"We have a number of state legislators here, both in the Senate and the House, who are trying to address some of our critical issues, such as property taxes, health insurance rate hikes, child care, and housing," he said, describing the lawmakers as having "worked tirelessly in an imperfect system."
"I am confident that work will continue with even greater dedication this upcoming legislative session because we have no choice but to develop a more sustainable system moving forward," Hashim said.
Going forward, however, policy development will require a more nuanced and moderate approach with more compromise, he said.
"I think that is a good thing," said Hashim, a former trooper with the Vermont State Police. "Personally, I am a fan of having robust conversations with people who have viewpoints that are different than my own.
"I look forward to working within the new dynamic in the Vermont Legislature, and I'm very grateful and honored by the voters in Windham County for the opportunity to return to Montpelier," he said.
This News item by Joyce Marcel was written for The Commons.