LONDONDERRY-Vermont has a housing crisis - the state needs up to 36,000 new homes by 2030 to meet demand - and the quintessential single-family house on a large lot on a country road will not be the solution.
"It's certainly not the future that local Vermonters can afford," said Chris Campany, executive director of the Windham Regional Commission (WRC).
Instead, multifamily housing will become the standard.
"Without a collapse in land prices or building prices that creates a massive housing surplus - that's our reality," said Campany, who spoke to planners, local elected officials, and residents from Londonderry, Jamaica, Weston, and Winhall about the results of a regional housing needs assessment for their towns.
The study was part of a pilot project led by the WRC, with the assistance of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst and the Communities by Design Program of the Architects Foundation (a charity of the American Institute of Architects) to assist these towns in addressing workforce housing and affordable housing needs.
Project leaders, including planners, architects, and landscape architects, presented their findings during two meetings.
At a Sept. 26 meeting at the Flood Brook School in Londonderry, Campany told participants that as the population ages and household size shrinks, a need for smaller units is emerging.
Additionally, the region needs affordable workforce housing for moderate- and low-income households.
Multifamily housing can meet these needs and can be built efficiently using less land and on a scale where construction, labor, land, and permitting costs are lower.
"It may not be the pattern of development that we've tended to see here. It's probably going to look very different than what we've been accustomed to," Campany said.
'It's not an impossible task'
The multi-town Housing Needs Assessment, prepared for the WRC by the UMass Center for Resilient Metro-Regions and published in July, highlights the need for affordable, year-round housing in the four-town region of the West River Valley, whose economy relies on the nearby ski industry.
The study projects a need for approximately 850 new housing units by 2040.
It assumes a population increase of 0.8% per year and factors in unmet housing needs by "kids, neighbors, and friends who'd like to move here," said Elisabeth Infield, professor of regional planning at UMass Amherst's Department of Landscape Architecture and Regional Planning and co-author of the report.
Assuming a quarter acre of land for each housing unit, approximately 213 acres will be needed to accommodate these new homes over the next 15 years.
"It's not that much land," Infield told meeting participants. "It's not an impossible task."
Housing affordability is an issue
Many residents in the four towns earn less than $50,000 per year - in Winhall, almost 40% of households, and in Jamaica and Londonderry, close to 30%.
Weston is relatively prosperous, with a median income of $110,000, well above the state median income of $67,674. Only 20% of residents earn less than $50,000 per year.
Low wages and a limited housing supply mean that many residents are considered housing-cost-burdened, meaning that they pay more than 30% of their household income on housing.
In Jamaica, 38% of rental households fall into that category. In Londonderry, 51% of renters pay up to half of their income on housing. Many Winhall renters are severely cost-burdened, with 39% of renters paying 50% or more of their income for housing.
"An awful lot of people who live and work here are eligible for affordable housing [programs]," Wayne Feiden, director of the UMass Center for Resilient Metro-Regions, told meeting participants. "They're the people who work at the ski mountains, in the restaurants and the hotels."
Project researchers propose alternatives for interpreting these data. Each town can work independently to tailor its housing strategies to meet the needs of the current and projected number of low- and moderate-income residents.
Alternatively, higher-income towns, like Weston, could be viewed as having more responsibility to create affordable and attainable housing to do their "fair share" for the region, and to provide workforce housing for those employed there, he said.
Julie Barrett, a consultant to the project, noted that while all four towns call for more affordable housing in their respective Town Plans, none of their zoning regulations allow for denser, multifamily housing development at the scale needed.
"Multifamily dwellings create choice and are an efficient use of land," Barrett said. "And they are financially feasible from a developer's point of view."
Short-term rentals impact supply of year-round housing
The report finds that short-term rentals (STR) make up a "very significant part of the overall housing stock" of the four towns, especially in Winhall, with its proximity to Stratton Mountain.
Only 2% of Winhall's rental housing stock is available for year-round rentals, complicating the issue of housing accessibility for permanent residents.
"We have to do something. We have young families that can't live in our town," said Julie Isaacs, a Winhall Selectboard member.
"It's embarrassing that there's not a place a teacher can buy a house in my town," she continued. "We have an entire police department, and not one of them lives closer than a 30 minutes' drive."
Housing has been on the Selectboard's agenda, "but the real focus has been on figuring out what to do about short-term rentals," Isaacs said, referring to the impact of STRs on quality-of-life issues like noise and garbage.
Barrett spoke about STRs, characterizing them as a double-edged sword for towns.
On one hand, she said, "They're killing our housing market." But she acknowledged that the income they provide "helps people to stay in their homes."
She pointed to Londonderry's new short-term rental bylaw, which requires STR owners to register with the town, as a model for understanding how STRs fit into a town's housing market.
Barrett proposed that the four towns explore implementing this model regionally.
How to preserve character
Architects on the project team discussed the importance of preserving the character of Vermont's villages by locating new housing above existing commercial properties, on vacant lots, behind existing structures, and at the edges of villages.
This "gentle infill" approach is also being promoted through the Homes for All Toolkit project, a project of the Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development (ACCD), which aims "to reintroduce missing middle homes (MMH) to Vermont."
According to the ACCD, "MMHs are rooted in Vermont's pre-1945 development pattern and include a range of neighborhood-scale residential building types like accessory dwelling units (ADUs), duplexes, small-scale multi-household buildings, and small mixed-use/live-work buildings that can accommodate residents of different ages, abilities, lifestyles, and stages of life."
In many municipalities, however, zoning restrictions have made the process of adding such housing units difficult - if not illegal.
In the project's next phase, researchers will identify potential development sites in the four towns using basic criteria for development: that they be neither too steep nor at risk of flooding.
In a final report, to be issued later this year, architects and landscape architects will present initial designs for housing types suitable for these parcels.
Housing as a regional issue
Calling the four-town housing project a "bold experiment," Campany hopes it will spark broader conversations across towns about opportunities for collaboration.
"It could be that as a result of this project, the focus remains within the town, but maybe you get some different ideas from hearing what conversations your neighbors and others are having," he said.
It can be very difficult to solve the housing crisis town by town, Campany explained in a recent WRC newsletter.
"It could be that the best housing solution for the residents of your town will ultimately be found in a neighboring town," he wrote.
"Some towns are better suited for housing than others because existing settlement patterns lend themselves to new housing and neighborhood development, land is available for compact settlement that is not likely at risk of flooding, there's existing infrastructure and the ability to expand that infrastructure, and other very practical considerations," said Campany.
An advocate for cross-town collaboration, Campany said that in some cases it could even make sense to think beyond state lines.
Campany has proposed engaging with neighboring towns in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, where appropriate, to address more regional challenges - like housing and infrastructure - that don't disappear at a state border.
Let's get out of our silos
Winhall Selectboard member Isaacs supports cross-town collaboration.
"We're all living through the same issues, so being able to talk about it collaboratively, instead of in silos, is nice," she said.
Laura Gianotti, a resident of Winhall and director of the Winhall Community Arts Center, agreed. "All of these towns are very closely connected in a lot of ways. So I think putting us all together was very natural."
Feiden, the project leader, encouraged meeting participants to think broadly about housing as they work to promote more of it.
"Think about not only what your own needs are right now, but think about what your needs may be in the future," he said.
"Maybe you'll have to downsize, or your parents may have to downsize," Feiden continued. "Maybe as your kids graduate they want to move here or move out of your house. What is it that your neighbors, your employees, and your co-workers need?
"Too often the fear of change can prevent opportunities," he added. "That then means we, or the people we care about, can't live in this place that we love."
This News item by Ellen Pratt was written for The Commons.