NEWFANE — When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, President George W. Bush mishandled it.
He praised Michael D. Brown, the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job.”
In light of the disaster, Bush undermined his own credibility. I have a theory about how he ended up in a situation where the head of FEMA was a novice, incapable of addressing the situation.
During the Clinton administration, James Lee Witt was appointed head of FEMA. He was a consummate professional. He knew his business.
“FEMA has developed a sterling reputation for delivering disaster-relief services, a far cry from its abysmal standing before James Lee Witt took its helm in 1993,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote in a 1996 editorial.
“How did Witt turn FEMA around so quickly? Well, he is the first director of the agency to have emergency-management experience. He stopped the staffing of the agency by political patronage. He removed layers of bureaucracy.
“Most important, he instilled in the agency a spirit of preparedness, of service to the customer, of willingness to listen to ideas of local and state officials to make the system work better.”
Witt was so good that he made it look easy, almost like anyone could do a similar job. As it turns out, it took a true expert and leader of the agency to make it work so well.
Politics aside, Clinton understood that good government demands good professionals in key positions. He left office with a balanced budget and a financial surplus. That is why his approval rating rose and rose, even after his impeachment. Whatever his sins, he knew how to run the government.
But Bush, in his one line about Brownie and in his administration's mishandling of the crisis, created a sudden shift of how people saw him. They came to the conclusion he was incompetent. This was a shock to the system, and his poll numbers dropped to the lowest number of his presidency.
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Americans, especially Republicans, have had a high tolerance for Donald Trump's lies, his assault on democracy, the crisis at the border with families being torn apart, the betrayal of the Kurds, and - for me, the most horrible transgression - the president's ignoring Vladimir Putin's paying bounty to the Taliban for killing American kids deployed in Afghanistan. It seems like none of these things has had any impact on Trump's group of dedicated followers.
But now the pandemic has revealed the obvious - that Trump is incompetent. He has no idea of how to manage the most threatening crisis in over 100 years.
While Europe and Asia have brought their countries' respective virus rates to minimal numbers - some of them to 0 deaths a day - our numbers are out of control.
Reality is what it is. It is hard to ignore it when your loved ones are dying. When, at this point, close to 160,000 Americans have died in 6 months, it is hard to close your eyes to this extreme suffering and tragedy.
Trump has tried to ignore reality. He somehow thinks that if he sells the idea that we have everything under control, as he has said over and over, everything will be okay.
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Yet, the reality is that the country is in trouble, and Trump's credibility is dropping like a brick in a pond. Some 58 percent of the country disapproves of Trump's handling of the crisis. Only 37.8 percent approves - a demographic that, as Trump has said, would not care if he were to shoot someone on 5th Avenue.
In addition to polls, Trump's chances of re-election can be measured with the betting odds, recently 7 percent in favor of his re-election, 93 percent against.
While Americans can put up with a lot, one thing they will not accept is incompetence.
Had we had an effective national response to the virus in January or February, we would not be in our crisis situation, unlike other countries that have addressed the crisis with good government and good management.
Europe has 100 million more people than the USA. Look at how the European Union is now able to open their economy safely. Notice how the Europeans act if the numbers begin to go in the wrong direction.
We have 4 percent of the world's population, yet 25 percent of COVID-19 cases. Why? All Trump can say is “It is what it is.”
But it could have been different. We could have had 4 percent of the world population and 4 percent of the caseload.
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Trump has no understanding of how to run things. He is not like our best CEOs. He is not like our best generals. He is not the kind of person who would find and hire a James Lee Witt.
And as we move to November, he will play every trick to stay in power or to discredit the election.
He is against true democracy in which the people choose their own leadership. Except in Florida, where he depends on absentee voting, he is already trying to cripple the post office as more and more people want to vote by mail.
We are in for quite a ride as Trump will become increasingly desperate - always the case when people try to motivate others by conflict manipulation. The Democrats will be described not only as a tool of the radical left, but as having been brought to the U.S.A. by the devil himself. Trump will need to get crazier and crazier in his trying to stop the world as it moves away from his grasp.
Unlike in Vermont, where we have a great Republican governor who is not an ideologue, congressional Republicans have moved in lockstep with Trump. They are also in trouble.
This is a good thing for the GOP. A devastating defeat can lead to a new possibility for the party, with new leaders emerging and living up to principles they used to care about. Can anyone imagine Republicans not saying anything if Putin were killing our kids during the Obama administration?
No number of what-about-isms will change reality. America is in more trouble than we've seen in 100 years. And the type of leadership that brought us through the Great Depression, World War II, and the cold war is absent but now appreciated by those who contrast them and our country's current leaders.
In his monumental book In Search of History: A Personal Adventure, Theodore H. White has taught us that governments that do not protect their people lose credibility and support.
This is where we are now.
Government has one prime directive, and that is to protect its citizens from harm. This is why Trump's days as president are numbered.