Good morning, noon, or night to you, and happy autumn!
Generally speaking, we've been soaking in sunshine for a very long time. The drought and dry weather has persisted thanks to dominant high pressure in the southeast U.S. But as we move deeper into autumn, there are signs we could experience more stormy weather later in October and into November.
For now, fair weather is more likely to be the rule. However, over the next several days into Sunday, the sun is going to be hiding away for a while. Because the upcoming pattern is one that contains a lot of uncertainty, I'm going to provide an overall discussion this week.
There are two competing atmospheric players at odds with each other through the coming week. The first is an upper level low-pressure system near the Great Lakes that is what we weather folks term “occluded.” These kinds of closed low-pressure systems form when their cold front races counterclockwise around the low center and “catches up” with its warm front.
This stops the flow of warm air into the system, and it ceases to strengthen much. These low pressure systems tend to be cut off from the jet stream and meander, or track in unusual patterns. This Great Lakes system will slowly move south and east towards the Appalachian Mountains, and then meander back in a northerly fashion by the weekend.
The second player is a high-pressure system that will be sliding into Maine, providing an easterly component to our flow during the next several days while also adding drier air into the mix. The combination of these atmospheric actors will provide a cool, mostly cloudy to cloudy sky from late Wednesday into Sunday of this week.
Showers and drizzle will be possible at times during this period, and high temperatures will sit on either side of 60 degrees through Saturday, with low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 40s. Saturday, as of this writing, looks like the best chance for more substantial rainfall.
By Sunday, despite the chance for showers, new high pressure will begin to nose down from eastern Canada, start to break up the oceanic flow over the region, and allow slightly warming temperatures and more sunshine with time. We can expect highs in the low to middle 60s Sunday through Tuesday with increasing sunshine.
Have a great week!