Climate change has come to Vermont. From local volunteers, officials, and members of organizations like the Windham Regional Commission (WRC), to our elected representatives in state government, Vermonters are addressing the strange weather patterns that are becoming the rule, not the exception, all over the state.
Exhibit A: Lake Champlain, which remains above flood stage and continues to cause damage to homes and property along the shoreline in Chittenden County, as well as in New York state and Canada.
In early assessments by representatives of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the damage has been estimated at $15 million. More of the disaster's cost will need to be assessed when the flood waters recede, which is not expected immediately.
Exhibit B: Last month's flooding in Westminster West, which brought freshets from spring storms into sharp focus as one of the greatest hazards for rural Vermonters.
Vermont has a long history of water circumventing plugged culverts and finding other ways downhill, washing out roads in the process. But the Bemis Hill Road washout from a flash flood that bent a culvert in half, deposited tons of rocks in one resident's lawn, and narrowly missed washing away the foundations of a home at the foot of the hill, provided a strong warning that unusual weather patterns are occurring, and that no one is exempt.
Last week, following FEMA's survey of the damage to state roads, bridges, and other infrastructure, Gov. Peter Shumlin included Windham County in a letter sent to President Obama, in which he requested disaster assistance for Vermont.
Even so, Vermonters would seem to have gotten off lightly.
Tornado warnings in Windham County on June 1 yielded only the yellow-green sky that can accompany the deadly twisters, which are formed by the confluence of cooler and warmer storm systems.
But the Springfield, Mass. area, only 60 miles or so from Brattleboro, was not nearly so lucky, as multiple tornadoes ripped across the western part of the state, killing three people and causing an estimated $25 million of damage.
And, as recently as last week, severe storm warnings were issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency for Windham County.
Extreme weather patterns have been recorded in almost every state. Texas is experiencing severe drought. “Tornado alley,” the Midwestern belt, has experienced more tornadoes in 2011 than in any year since 1950. A worse-than-average hurricane season is predicted, beginning this month.
And New England, according to Alan Betts, an atmospheric researcher from Pittsford, has experienced a 67 percent increase in very heavy precipitation since 1958.
Betts noted that the growing season starts earlier and ends later, as measured by last and first frosts. If current carbon dioxide emission rates continue, Vermont's climate by 2090 will be similar to that found in northern Georgia, he said.
And even if emissions stop completely, their “multiplier effect” in the atmosphere will continue to affect climate change for years to come, said Agency of Natural Resources Secretary Deb Markowitz.
Flood waters rise
In the hilly regions that abound in the area, two of the biggest hazards are washouts and flash flooding.
Culverts are being replaced throughout the state and county, because severe rain storms can easily plug smaller culverts with debris, and cause overflows and washouts, such as the ones in Westminster West and Rockingham last month.
High water along the Connecticut River drainage is mitigated by dams and the river's continuous outlet to the ocean, unlike the situation at Lake Champlain, in which one narrow outlet cannot release water fast enough.
But while the Connecticut River has an open-ended exit flow for water, it does experience high water in the flood plains along the river.
According to Matthew Cole, who handles community relations for TransCanada, the Bellows Falls hydroelectric facility measured a peak flow of 57,305 cubic feet (428,671 gallons) per second on April 29, a few days after major storms hit Vermont.
On May 17, the day of the Westminster West flooding, the peak flow rate measured 34,302 cubic feet (256,597 gallons) per second.
Cole said that he keeps businesses below the falls up to date – like the Allen Brothers company, whose fields can be submerged at certain flood stages.
“I make local calls regularly,” he said. “I talk to the [Bellows Falls] Wastewater people, too. It's all part of what I do,” Cole said.
Indeed, while emergency management is organized at the state level, and supported by federal agencies like FEMA, all officials agree that what happens at the first response level, in the communities affected, is what matters the most.
The WRC oversees the efforts of towns and villages to assess hazards, and to take necessary steps to plan ahead for possible disasters.
WRC Emergency Response Planner Dinah Reed explained that the Local Emergency Planning Commission (LEPC 6) was originally formed to deal with chemical disasters, “which means that they plan for all hazards that may affect...communities.”
“WRC planners work with towns to encourage them to create a Pre-Disaster Mitigation [PDM] plan,” Reed said, which helps them identify “all of the hazards facing the town, and to identify strategies to begin reducing risks from identified hazards.”
“Not all towns in the Windham region have PDM plans,” she said. “However, all towns are required to have a Rapid Response Plan, which is a checklist and guide for each town in case of an emergency.”
According to Reed, “some towns are small enough to just pull together as neighbors and a community to handle a disaster.”
However, the advantage of having PDM is a financial one.
“If they have a plan in place, they can apply for grants to help replace small culverts with larger ones, for instance,” Reed explained.
She cites “replacing bridges before they become a hazard in a flood” as another example of how funding can be used. These funds are available through the WRC, which can help towns write the grants.
The state responds
On May 17, Markowitz was appointed, by an executive order from Gov. Shumlin, to chair a Climate Change Cabinet, which consists of the secretaries of four state departments and the commissioners of two others.
According to a statement from Shumlin, the team is “working to identify climate-related threats, develop solutions, and implement steps to help us mitigate impacts and incorporate adaptation strategies, where necessary, to benefit people and the environment in Vermont, our region, and the world.”
Support staff for the cabinet is composed of experts in air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, forest carbon, water quality, and waste reduction.
Shumlin said that the climate change team has been charged with helping the state achieve the “aggressive goals” of reducing emissions by 25 percent of 1990 baseline levels by 2012, by 50 percent by 2028, and, “if practicable using reasonable efforts,” by 75 percent by 2050.
The cabinet held its first meeting in May to bring everyone up to speed on the history of climate research in Vermont since 2009, and to describe statewide efforts to address key issues, Markowitz said.
“We have three main jobs,” she added: reducing statewide greenhouse emissions, finding methods to encourage rail transportation for freight instead of trucking, and supporting the introduction and use of electric cars.
In Vermont, 47 percent of greenhouse gases come from transportation, primarily trucking, followed by personal vehicles, Markowitz said.
“The governor's push to have electric stations for electric cars to plug into is also being looked at, and how we can support that,” she added.
Although encouraging sources of clean energy is the primary goal of the cabinet, Markowitz said that training Vermonters to adapt to the changing climate is another of the cabinet's top objectives.
The long-term impact to Vermont
Betts' atmospheric research has helped other Vermont scientists identify the likely impact of changes in precipitation and temperature on forests, agriculture, and tourism.
According to the governor's office, Vermont finds its unique natural resources at stake - and thus, its state economy.
“Climate change presents a challenge to the natural resources and ecosystems which make Vermont unique,” Shumlin said.
The governor added that “landscape responses to our distinct seasons support local businesses, such as maple sugar producers; provide residents and visitors alike with winter sports opportunities; and create the green mountains of our summers and vibrant colors for which our autumns are famous. Our native fish, wildlife, and plants are vulnerable to climate-related changes.”
The climate-change cabinet, along with supporting professional and scientific staff, has looked into the impact on skiing and other recreational industries, on seasonal products like those created by the maple sugar industry, on agriculture, and on forestry.
In warmer temperatures, cold weather crops grow with more difficulty, and decreased milk production can be expected.
Scientific data indicate that forest growth could increase, but only for a short period, as temperatures warm. The cycle of transpiration (the part of the water cycle in which plants emit water vapor) might be followed by short-term drought and arid soil, affecting water availability for tree growth.
The cabinet and its scientists will also examine the impact of climate change on water resources, public health, public safety, and transportation.
Markowitz said that state government can set an example of how to make change.
She added that the cabinet is exploring electric and hybrid models for the fleet of state cars, as well as ways to weatherize state buildings and retrofit them for better energy efficiency.
“We're coordinating our efforts throughout the state,” Markowitz said. “By October, we should have an energy plan.”
As far as Betts is concerned, Vermonters “must change at fundamental levels, and pay attention to our smallest decisions, and joyfully make the right choices.”
Betts said the state efforts can be an agent for these habit shifts as Vermonters confront the fundamental reality of climate change.
“It's here. We're in it,” he said.